SHFE tin prices opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a high-level consolidation. Trading in the spot market was relatively sluggish. [SMM Tin Morning News]

November 10, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained high-level consolidation, closing at 284,760 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.4% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to Nikkei, Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to include tax cuts to promote investment in 17 key industries such as artificial intelligence and chips, including shipbuilding, aerospace, and national defense, and will compile a multi-year budget to enhance policy predictability. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to outline the framework of the stimulus plan at a government panel meeting of the New Economic Strategy Headquarters on Monday. This will be her first major economic initiative since taking office. Sources said in October that Japan's plan is expected to exceed last year's scale of $92 billion and will revolve around three pillars: coping with inflation, investing in growth industries, and national security. The Japanese government is considering introducing a new tax system that allows companies to deduct part of their capital expenditure from corporate taxes. This plan marks a shift in policy direction, moving from the previous focus on small and medium-sized enterprises to a new framework applicable to companies regardless of size. (2) Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said on Saturday that Nvidia's business is growing strongly, and demand for its most advanced Blackwell chips is "very strong." "Nvidia makes GPUs, but we also make CPUs, networking, and switches, so many chips are related to Blackwell," Huang told reporters at an event held by Nvidia's long-term partner TSMC in Hsinchu. TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said Huang came "to ask for wafers," but the quantity is confidential. (3) The white paper "China's Actions on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" released by the State Council Information Office on the 8th pointed out that China is vigorously developing low-carbon transportation equipment, continuously optimizing the transportation structure, and accelerating the formation of a safe, convenient, efficient, green, and economical modern comprehensive transportation system. China has accelerated the promotion of NEVs, achieving the fastest and largest-scale NEV promotion and application globally; railway electrification levels are world-leading; promoted the use of clean power for ships and aircraft; advanced the use of shore power for key regions, routes, and ships in port; and the electrification level of civil aviation airports leads the world. At the same time, China's transportation structure continues to be adjusted and optimized, and green transportation infrastructure is constantly upgraded.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan is generally tightening, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, and high prices significantly suppressed actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Market performance was relatively mediocre. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, as downstream enterprises' purchase willingness was dampened by high tin prices, leading them to primarily purchase as needed. Traditional consumption sectors, such as home appliances and tinplate, are currently in the off-season; meanwhile, growth in emerging demand areas like PV welding strips is not enough to fully counteract the overall weakness in tin consumption.

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